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A Peer-reviewed scientific articles/A1 Journal article (refereed), original research
      
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The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets - an experimental study, International Journal of Forecasting 2, April-June (2014). Kauko, Karlo; Palmroos, Peter


Category A Peer-reviewed scientific articles
Sub-category A1 Journal article (refereed), original research
auki Internal authors
All authors as text Kauko, Karlo; Palmroos, Peter 
Number of authors
Status Published
Year of publication 2014 
Date 15.04.2014 
Name of article The Delphi method in forecasting financial markets - an experimental study 
Name of journal International Journal of Forecasting
Volume of issue 30 
Number of issue 2, April-June 
Pages 313-327 
Abstract Experts were used as Delphi panellists and asked to present forecasts on financial market variables in a controlled experiment. We found that the respondents with the least accurate or least conventional views were particularly likely to modify their answers. Most of these modifications were in the right direction but too small, probably because of belief-perseverance bias. This paper also presents two post-survey adjustment methods for Delphi method based forecasts. First, we present a potential method to correct for the belief perseverance bias. The results seem promising. Secondly, we test a conditional forecasting process, which unexpectedly proves unsuccessful.
Free text descriptor in English Delphi method, Financial markets, Expert judgment, Belief perseverance, Overconfidence, Conditional forecasting 
JEL-codes A12; G17 
ISSN / e-ISSN 0169-2070 
auki Internet addresses
Additional information Available online 4 January 2014.