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A Peer-reviewed scientific articles/A1 Journal article (refereed), original research
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How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, Journal of Business Cycle Research 2 (2017). Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta

Category A Peer-reviewed scientific articles
Sub-category A1 Journal article (refereed), original research
auki Internal authors
Oinonen Sami / Monetary Policy and International Economy
All authors as text Oinonen, Sami; Paloviita, Maritta 
Number of authors
Status Published
Year of publication 2017 
Date 17.11.2017 
Name of article How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters 
Name of journal Journal of Business Cycle Research
Volume of issue 13 
Number of issue
Pages 139 - 163 
Abstract This study examines short- and long-term inflation expectations in the unbalanced panel of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. We focus on dispersion of forecaster views comparing two sub-groups of survey respondents based on forecast accuracy. We then examine possible differences between regular and irregular forecasters, and assess the impacts of varying panel composition on aggregated survey information. Our analysis indicates that survey participation is not necessarily completely random, i.e., statistically independent of forecaster views or confidence levels. While the study provides evidence that aggregated survey responses are generally a reliable proxy for inflation expectations in the euro area, one should also pay attention to expectations at the micro level, especially in periods of increased forecast uncertainty.
Free text descriptor in Finnish euroalue; inflaatio; odotukset; informaatio; ennusteet; kyselyaineistot; aggregoidut inflaatio-odotukset; EKP:n kyselytutkimus; EKP; SPF; kyselyt 
Free text descriptor in English survey data; aggregated inflation expectations; euro area; ECB SPF 
JEL-codes C53; E37; E31 
ISSN / e-ISSN 1995-2880 
auki Internet addresses
Additional information First Online: 05 September 2017

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